The Ongoing Iran–Israel–US Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz


The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran and Oman. It connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, it is about 33 km (around 21–22 miles) wide. Around one-fifth of the world’s oil, nearly 22 million barrels per day, passes through this strait. About 20–30% of LNG and 20% of global petroleum move through the Strait of Hormuz on their way to other countries. Major exporters using this passage include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. This clearly shows its global importance as one of the world’s most important energy routes. 

Due to the ongoing conflict, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sent a warning message to ships using radio channels, telling them not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This adds time and cost to the global trade. In simple words, even a short disruption can lead to a hike in oil and gas prices worldwide.

It will also negatively affect Pakistan's oil and gas imports because the country depends heavily on Gulf energy, such as LNG from Qatar, diesel from Kuwait, and crude oil from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). If the route is closed for a long time, it could lead to higher petroleum prices, LNG shortages, rising inflation, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and a larger current account deficit. In this scenario, Pakistan may turn to Saudi Arabia for oil. Saudi Arabia can bypass the Strait of Hormuz using its East-West Pipeline (Petroline) to ship oil through the Red Sea. However, Saudi Arabia is not a major LNG exporter, so gas supplies may still be at risk.

The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted in past conflicts, but it has rarely been completely closed.


By Syed Azam Ali Shah

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